We’ve already run tiny versions of Shor’s algorithm on real quantum hardware against 15, 21, and 48-bit RSA keys.

next sentence:

current record is a […] team that factored a 22-bit RSA key (2)

Which is it? Also:

(2) “Factoring 22-bit RSA Integer Using a Quantum Annealing Processor”

Annealers can’t run Shor’s algorithm. Even a 100k Qubit Annealer can’t break RSA 2048. This is an important distinction.

Also, even though the NSA did some good things for cryptography, they also pushed some backdoored standards to NIST. There was some discussion about the attack complexity on Kyber, but I don’t know how that ended.

I still give it a 50/50 chance if I will ever see RSA2048 broken by a quantum computer. I wouldn’t bet my pension on that chance.