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Cake day: July 11th, 2023

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  • Rothenberg starts by noting that, if you go by the polls, it’s going to be a close election in November. And the polls might very well be right. However, there are indicators that Kamala Harris is driving up enthusiasm among some key demographics, most obviously younger voters and voters of color. Pollster models of the 2024 electorate are based, more or less, on what the 2020 electorate looked like. That means that if the 2024 electorate is substantively different, the polls could be off, perhaps by a lot. The conclusion is that you shouldn’t be too terribly surprised if, in the end, Harris wins fairly comfortably. Rothenberg is not saying that WILL happen, merely that it’s within the realm of possibility.