At this point, Democrats hold only a narrow 2-point edge over Republicans on the generic ballot, a far cry from the 7-point margins they held ahead of their victories in the 2006 and 2018 midterms. “It’s not just on the generic ballot where Democrats are behind their 2017 and 2005,” Enten added.

His assessment follows new polling from Trump’s longtime pollster Tony Fabrizio, whose firm found Republicans trailing Democrats 44% to 41% on the generic ballot in districts that were evenly split in the 2024 elections.

Interesting article.