He can absolutely see through those cards. We trust that he’s not cheating the same way we trust anyone isn’t cheating any other time. She probably wouldn’t actually be that into him (and they would have never been an item) if he wasn’t already better than most men at handling and controlling his emotions. (I think Worf was her “Bad Boy” phase because he is so awful at controlling his and just funnels everything into angry sex.) Point being, if anyone can bluff her, it’s him. Probabilities are useful, but counting cards in most poker variants isn’t that much of an advantage.