Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election?
projects.fivethirtyeight.com
538’s 2024 presidential election forecast model showing Democrat Kamala Harris’s and Republican Donald Trump’s chances of winning.

For the first time since 538 published our presidential election forecast for Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, Trump has taken the lead (if a very small one) over Harris. As of 3 p.m. Eastern on Oct. 18, our model gives Trump a 52-in-100 chance of winning the majority of Electoral College votes. The model gives Harris a 48-in-100 chance.

  • just_another_person@lemmy.world
    153·
    25 days ago

    Down outing because anyone watching polls has seen floods of bullshit polls flood the arena in the past few weeks. They’re totally made up and inaccurate, and in cahoots with the Trump campaign to try and give credence to another attempt and overthrowing the government by crying about the election results.

    • credo@lemmy.worldOP
      37·
      25 days ago

      I’ve seen the reports. I highly doubt any of the arm chair statisticians (who have never taken a day of mathematical or proof-level stats) have a clue what they are talking about. The polls’ histories and lean are factored into 538’s averages. They are not new to this.

      And how many polls are left leaning? The graph posted a couple of days ago on midwest claims 35% are right leaning, and a correlation with the drop in support for Harris. What it doesn’t say is the proportion of democratic polls, and there really isn’t a correlation over the length of history shown.

      Hard to make informed decisions when half the information is hidden. (But arm chair statisticians don’t recognize the issue do they?)