Wouldn’t a bubble be at least partially correlated with banking loan duration? I’m not sure what the nominal terms are, but figure they are all likely on the same schedule due to the initial influx of public interest. So if one company defaults, the rest are put under far greater scrutiny and results in collapse.
That is how I watched retail fail. Default on one distributor and the rest quickly find out. If the retailer does not have a good excuse in that moment, they all pull credit even if one is in good standing with all the rest. When it is the first time, if the issue happens in the off season or the business is in the process of expanding and opening a new store, no one cares in general and will often extend terms. If the local region is doing badly, it is another thing entirely. Everyone is on edge and conservative. I figure that dynamic is likely universal in business at all scales.
Failure of a retailer isn’t necessarily quite the same thing as a bubble though. I witnessed the kind of failure you’re talking about most recently with Fry’s Electronics. I was out of pocket following major surgery for a year, when I went back to Fry’s it was like “Oh, holy hell, what happened?”
Well, their distributors cut them off, they tried to move to a consignment model, and the only stuff they had in any quantity was Gatorade and toilet paper. 😉 Man, if only they had made it to Covid! They could have…
Wouldn’t a bubble be at least partially correlated with banking loan duration? I’m not sure what the nominal terms are, but figure they are all likely on the same schedule due to the initial influx of public interest. So if one company defaults, the rest are put under far greater scrutiny and results in collapse.
That is how I watched retail fail. Default on one distributor and the rest quickly find out. If the retailer does not have a good excuse in that moment, they all pull credit even if one is in good standing with all the rest. When it is the first time, if the issue happens in the off season or the business is in the process of expanding and opening a new store, no one cares in general and will often extend terms. If the local region is doing badly, it is another thing entirely. Everyone is on edge and conservative. I figure that dynamic is likely universal in business at all scales.
Failure of a retailer isn’t necessarily quite the same thing as a bubble though. I witnessed the kind of failure you’re talking about most recently with Fry’s Electronics. I was out of pocket following major surgery for a year, when I went back to Fry’s it was like “Oh, holy hell, what happened?”
Well, their distributors cut them off, they tried to move to a consignment model, and the only stuff they had in any quantity was Gatorade and toilet paper. 😉 Man, if only they had made it to Covid! They could have…
😎
Cleaned up!