There are options. Dumping US bonds would collapse the US, and the only thing that makes it hard is the US economy collapsing would be a bad thing for the EU right now.
Also, protracted resistance. Greenland is harsh territory, and Nordic weekend soldiers regularly beat US marines in exercises in cold weather warfare.
The USSR lost half a million in Afghanistan, 50k to fighting, 450k to the environment. And they didn’t need to resupply via the Atlantic.
Also, the Nordics probs have the world’s best submarine interdiction fleet, and most of the Cold War era US anti-sub stuff is actually reliant on Greenland, Iceland and the UK cooperating.
Nordic subs regularly score hits on US carriers in exercises.
I haven’t really read into this because the whole thing is so insane that if it happens all bets are off.
The thing that is a huge wildcard is how Denmark and the rest of the EU react.
In the sense that the EU is an obligatory military alliance closer than even NATO, so in essence if Denmark considers itself at war, so is France and her nuclear submarine fleet.
I mean Denmark already gave soldiers on the ground the order to shoot back. So they will “automatically” be at war. And if I recall correctly the EU has a similar paragraph to support each other than the NATO’s.
NATO already is mostly EU + US and then only Canada, UK, Turkey and some smaller ones which all are (politically) very close to the EU (much closer than to the US at least).
Would technically have to be a new one, NATO wasn’t designed to handle this sort of scenario. Of course New NATO would be an America-free roughly equivalent, with some different governance to prevent things like a single county impeding something everyone else wants.
I think the EU would capitulate. They know they can’t fight the US. But it would likely be the end of NATO.
Article 1 very much says so.
There are options. Dumping US bonds would collapse the US, and the only thing that makes it hard is the US economy collapsing would be a bad thing for the EU right now.
Also, protracted resistance. Greenland is harsh territory, and Nordic weekend soldiers regularly beat US marines in exercises in cold weather warfare.
The USSR lost half a million in Afghanistan, 50k to fighting, 450k to the environment. And they didn’t need to resupply via the Atlantic.
Also, the Nordics probs have the world’s best submarine interdiction fleet, and most of the Cold War era US anti-sub stuff is actually reliant on Greenland, Iceland and the UK cooperating.
Nordic subs regularly score hits on US carriers in exercises.
These estimates are not as catastrophic as yours, but they are still not ‘good’:
Casualty and Material Loss Estimates (Invasion Phase)
Casualty and Material Loss Estimates (Insurgency/Occupation Phase)
Source: Prime Rogue. A Hypothetical U.S. Military Invasion of Greenland – Grand Strategy, Strategy, Operations, and Tactics: A National Security Briefing.
I just thought that this would be potentially interesting to you.
Thanks, it is, in fact.
I haven’t really read into this because the whole thing is so insane that if it happens all bets are off.
The thing that is a huge wildcard is how Denmark and the rest of the EU react.
In the sense that the EU is an obligatory military alliance closer than even NATO, so in essence if Denmark considers itself at war, so is France and her nuclear submarine fleet.
I mean Denmark already gave soldiers on the ground the order to shoot back. So they will “automatically” be at war. And if I recall correctly the EU has a similar paragraph to support each other than the NATO’s.
EU is closer than NATO.
NATO says that if someone gets attacked, everyone else responds in a way they think is appropriate.
EU says that if someone gets attacked, everyone goes all out without consideration.
It would be the end of NATO as it stands, there’s no reason the remaining countries couldn’t continue the alliance or start a new one.
NATO already is mostly EU + US and then only Canada, UK, Turkey and some smaller ones which all are (politically) very close to the EU (much closer than to the US at least).
Would technically have to be a new one, NATO wasn’t designed to handle this sort of scenario. Of course New NATO would be an America-free roughly equivalent, with some different governance to prevent things like a single county impeding something everyone else wants.