As Americans tire of Donald Trump, a Democratic midterm ‘tsunami’ could sweep the GOP out of power
It was a wake-up call for America. In January, Donald Trump took the oath of office, declared himself “saved by God to make America great again” and issued a barrage of executive orders. In the ensuing months the US president and his allies moved at breakneck speed and seemed indomitable.
But as 2025 draws to a close with Trump struggling to stay awake at meetings, the prevailing image is of a driver asleep at the wheel. Opinion polls suggest that Americans are turning against him. Republicans are heading for the exit ahead of congressional contests next November that look bleak for the president’s party.
“He came into office and, like a blitzkrieg, was violating laws and the constitution,” said Larry Jacobs, director of the Center for the Study of Politics and Governance at the University of Minnesota. “The American political process is slow-moving and so he was able to do things that were extraordinary.
Do. Not. Trust. Polls.
DO. NOT. TRUST. POLLS.
This feels like a fucking repeat of the 2024 election. The internet naively believing they know the outcome, because certainly people can’t be that ignorant and shitty, can they?
They can.
They are.
Go talk to people in the real world, instead of reading articles written by fellow shut-ins, and realize that the narrative is FAR different for the average person. You people are setting yourselves up for disappointment. Again.
My prediction is the Dems will pick up just barely enough seats to take back control of the House. Not a snowballs chance in hell of taking back the Senate.
If the man who has been accurately predicting elections rightly has been wrong twice, then just about anyone can be wrong.
You’re one of those folks who are too stupid to understand probabilities and what polls are actually saying, aren’t you?
The polls in the run-up to the 2024 Presidential election were actually pretty good. The final aggregate error was right around 3.4 points [1]
Anyone who suggested that there was a clear favorite was lying about what the polls said. That’s not a failing of the polls, its a failing of the media reporting on the polls. Sure, there were some particular, individual outliers. The Anne Seltzer poll comes to mind. But, credit where it’s due, Seltzer published an outlier poll, because that was the outcome of the poll based on then methodology she had been using for a long time. Like with scientists publishing null results, it’s actually really important that such things are published and not hidden, but they are usually hidden.
Then plural of “anecdote” is not “data”. And quite the opposite here, if you’re out talking to people within your own social bubble, you’re far more likely to get a warped view of reality. This is one of the reasons polling is so hard, getting a truly representative sample of the population is hard. It is also likely a reason polls keep underestimating Trump. People with low social trust seem to favor Trump, and those same people are very hard to poll. They don’t often pick up the phone and often aren’t willing to divulge their political choices to strangers on the phone. So ya, expecting the polls to “miss” by 3-5 points, underestimating Republicans isn’t all that out of line.
This is funny, because this is very much an opinion which will have been informed by polling. It’s also what most analysis are coming up with:
Articles like the one posted by the OP are just pure hopium. Dems may make some gains this year, but a rational analysis of the current polling data tells a bleak story. They might get the House, the Senate is basically out of reach.
The only poll that matters is in November
You speak sense. We can’t keep falling for these polls.
The Trump fans are still out there waving their flags. Cheerleaders go a long way.
The polls and prediction markets showed Trump ahead in 2024…
I can’t talk to people because I’m not American, and after '24 I’m clear that my sources of information are biased and left-leaning.
Realistically, and with everything that’s happened, do you really think the Republicans will hold out?
From the outside, it looks like significant chaos; either the Democrats are very stupid, or the Republicans have massive media outlets to manipulate people (and letting that happen brings us back to the stupidity of the Democrats)
Both of those things are true, but also many Democrats are not very motivated to change anything so long as they themselves continue to benefit financially from the status quo, even a fascist status quo. This is a comfortable career for them, with investment opportunities, not an existential battle on behalf of the people.
I don’t understand, some Democrats benefit even if they lose, or benefit from winning even if the party loses.
I know the system is flawed, but if it makes things so bad for a specific group, it won’t matter what happens in this year’s elections.
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I makes no sense that you say your source of information is left leaning and at the same time say the republicans have massive media outlets to manipulate people… Which one is it?