Heading into the 2026 midterm elections, there are some very big warning signs for Republicans in the latest NPR/PBS News/Marist poll.
The survey of 1,443 adults, conducted from Nov. 10-13 found:
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Democrats holding their largest advantage, 14 points, since 2017 on the question of who respondents would vote for if the midterm elections were held today;
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Trump’s approval rating is just 39%, his lowest since right after the Jan. 6, 2021 attack on the Capitol;
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A combined 6-in-10 blame congressional Republicans or Trump for the government shutdown; and
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Nearly 6-in-10 say Trump’s top priority should be lowering prices — and no other issue comes close.
if we have the election
which we won’t
Since 1995, Confederates have controlled both the House and Senate 50% of the time. They’ve had majority control of both Congress and the presidency 25% of the time.
Democrats have controlled the House and Senate 19% of the time, and including the presidency just 13% of the time.
It’s been divided government 63% of the time.
The only way Democrats have won control for the last three decades is when they get very tired of Confederates and give them a brief time out: after Bush’s endless wars, after Trump’s first term.
The pattern seems to be that Democrats will win the House in 2026 and the presidency in 2028, but it’ll be divided government and they’ll only maintain control for 2-4 years before it swaps again. Due to the filibuster rules they won’t be able to accomplish anything and they Confederates will win the presidency again in 2032.
The thing I hate the most about government isn’t that it’s frustrating, but that it’s so goddamn predictable.
It’s a game I know I can’t win, and it’s the same boring levels over and over again. And if I decide to quit playing I’m the bad guy.
What a stupid world.
Can’t wait to see how they fuck this up.
How will they fuck it up?
This is great, but the Senate seats up for election in 2026 make the Democrats winning a majority really, really tough. The current Senate is 53 Republicans, 43 Democrats and 2 Independents who caucus with Democrats. This means that the Democrats need to net +4 seats to gain control of the Senate. Sure, it’s possible but the map doesn’t look good.
For example, the Democrats best pickup opportunity is likely Susan Collins’s seat in Maine. Despite Maine leaning Democrat in statewide elections, this is a rodeo Collins knows very, very well. Democrats have been trying to knock her off for several cycles and yet she’s still here. Maybe this will be the year. But, if this is the best opportunity for Democrats, we aren’t off to a good start.
North Carolina is an open seat, which helps some. But, the State has consistently voted Republican in Statewide elections (and went for Trump by ~3 points in 2024). A large enough blue wave could overcome that, but it’s already an uphill battle. And things only get worse from here.
Next up is Ohio, which Trump won by ~11 points. We aren’t talking super-hard MAGA land there, but Democrat friendly, it ain’t. This is the state which gave us Vice President JD Vance as a Senator. The election here is for the remainder of Vance’s term. Hope may spring eternal, but there is a really sketchy looking reality hiding around the next corner with a sock full of pennies.
That takes us on to Iowa. This state was Trump +13 in 2024. Sure, some farmers may be pissed off about the tariffs, but enough to put a Democrat in the Senate? This seems to fall into the “time to put the bong down and reconnect with reality” territory. I mean, it’s always possible. With a really well calibrated Democratic candidate, the GOP picking a really flawed candidate and really poor economic conditions, maybe. But I wouldn’t be betting the farm on Democrats picking this one up.
And then we need to consider defense. Jon Ossof is up for re-election in Georgia. Georgia went for Trump by ~2 points. Not a large margin, but enough that Osoff isn’t a shoe-in. And Michigan (Trump +1) is an open seat election. The previous Senator (Gary Peters) was a Democrat, so there is certainly hope, but again this isn’t a certain thing. If either of those seats are lost, Democrats are then looking at Texas (Trump +14. Also, it’s fucking Texas).
I’m all for a Democratic Congress. But their chances in the Senate look pretty bleak.
8 years, so literally the last time the big orange was in charge. We learn nothing
Hakeem Jeffries and Chuck Schumer and the other centrists will do everything in their power to weaken that advantage.
They don’t have any power though… Politicians that agree with them will go along with them, but they can’t force compliance anymore.
They got their leadership positions, because when they were elected to them they had a corrupt DNC that would bankrupt an entire state party if one politician from there didn’t toe the line.
Less then a month after they got their spots, the DNC appointed a new chair, one who not only what play that game, but is pre-emptively giving all that money to state parties with zero strings.
So it’s not just that the DNC might be unwilling to use those funds as leverage, it’s that they’re already giving that leverage back to the states.
Schumer and Jefferies can’t threaten people that Martin will wield the DNC as a club, because he’s already broken the club into a bunch of smaller clubs and passing them out.
This is the “bottom-up” structure that we’ve been missing for 50 years and why the party got so shitty.
Despite Trump’s slide in approval ratings, he’s holding up well with his base – 9-in-10 Republicans continue to say they approve of the job he’s doing.
I would guess that a not insignificant portion of this could be called ‘sunk costs’. As in, people not wanting to admit their wrong choices and holding the line out of stubborn pride.
I think it’s also because the minority of people who still identify as Republicans care more about people they don’t like being hurt than their own material well being
The enemy is both weak and strong rhetoric is for this exact scenario. Every win is cause our guys are the best. Every loss is because the enemy is too powerful and corrupt to overcome. Never have to question it
I look forward to finding out how they fuck this one up too .
I don’t.
And I think the real point is we can’t let them. Because we’re all very reactive but not so much proactive.
“What’s that!? It’s The Epstein Files off the top rope! Oh my God what a move! I think they call it “there’s only Democrats in the files other than a whole bunch of redacted!” They were looking strong until that move took them out!”
Implying that democrats need help to fuck up this kind of advantage.
For reference, the opposing party always has an advantage during non presidential election years.
Democrats can’t govern. A snail with freeze frames like Moscow Mitch successfully and singlehandely skewed the Supreme Court for decades. Show me ANY democrat that can do that, and I’ll change my opinion.
We need a left Moscow Mitch to unrig all the rigging. Until that point, the Dems are just Shit Lite™
Consolation prize to have a OAC, Sanders and Mamdani party block, with the same kind of “grassroot” funding and organising that Kirk did for Toilet Paper USA.
I swear to god, if you see the incompetence on both the Dem and GOP side of politics today, Moscow Mitch is almost single handedly a political chess grand master.
The democratic party failed, when Obama failed to hold big money responsible and place the people first, and strategically outsmart Mitch.
My money is still on a violent overthrow and adding a couple of amendments to the constitution. America is in it’s Second Civil War right now, and elections mean nothing in war time.
BoTH siDeS
